| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Indiana | 16-52 | 1633.3 | -118.3 | 1515.0 | 8.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | UNLV | 44-6 | 1515.0 | +82.3 | 1597.3 | 55.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Texas State | 35-49 | 1597.3 | -49.6 | 1547.8 | 77.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Houston Christian | 63-14 | 1547.8 | +21.8 | 1569.5 | 98.3% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | W | Tulsa | 45-44 | 1569.5 | -0.2 | 1569.4 | 75.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Charlotte | 50-10 | 1569.4 | +28.3 | 1597.6 | 95.2% |