| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Lamar | 51-0 | 1492.7 | +100.3 | 1593.0 | 92.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 33-30 | 1593.0 | -5.6 | 1587.4 | 68.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Washington State | 59-10 | 1587.4 | +140.0 | 1727.4 | 42.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Army | 45-38 | 1727.4 | +1.8 | 1729.2 | 67.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | South Alabama | 36-22 | 1729.2 | -4.5 | 1724.7 | 83.5% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | L | South Florida | 36-63 | 1725.0 | -57.4 | 1667.6 | 48.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UTSA | 55-17 | 1667.6 | +73.4 | 1741.0 | 51.0% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | W | Charlotte | 54-20 | 1741.0 | +16.0 | 1757.0 | 95.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Navy | 31-17 | 1757.0 | +3.2 | 1760.2 | 66.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UAB | 53-24 | 1753.7 | +20.0 | 1773.7 | 90.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Rice | 56-24 | 1773.7 | +28.2 | 1801.9 | 90.8% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Temple | 52-25 | 1801.9 | +7.1 | 1809.0 | 87.8% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Tulane | 21-34 | 1809.0 | -29.2 | 1779.8 | 67.3% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | San Diego State | 49-47 | 1769.3 | -3.1 | 1766.2 | 68.7% |